Referrals are picking up! Referrals are slowing down!
On a recent visit to Australia the CCAA officials told people to expect 12 month referrals!
The Australian government then told people this was not true and the wait was expected to be 18 months!
The CCAA is moving and it won't affect business at all! The CCAA will be closing down due to the move!
People are being rejected in the Review Room for medical reasons. People are being rejected because they're left-handed (okay, that one's not true but it's getting to feel like it's heading in that direction).
I have emotional whiplash. I feel like the person in the rollercoaster, hanging on for dear life.
Someone on a message board asked me for my thoughts before the Australian statement. These were my thoughts:
I do not think the rumors of 18+ months are true. First of all, the CCAA has stated that they wish to keep the wait to 12-13 months and for them to miss that by such a huge margin would be tremendously embarrassing to them. They would lose a lot of "face" which from a cultural perspective is huge, and I don't think they'd put themselves in that kind of a situation. In the past, they put quotas into place, which they have not done so far, and that bodes well, I think.
One reason for the current slowdown was the huge number of dossiers in April, May and June 05. The months after that continue to have smaller numbers of LIDs, even if November is big (still not as big as June) and they should be able to get through those faster. Although domestic adoption in China is no doubt on the rise, it is not a signficant factor in terms of the slowdown. The Chinese have a bias against adoption and it is still prohibitively expensive for most people. The economic boom has hardly trickled down to the outer provinces/agricultural areas. These people live in near poverty. Also, from what I've heard, Chinese prefer to adopt slightly older toddlers, not babies.
Second, 7-8 orphanages in Hunan were closed for a year once the Hunan scandal broke. The orphanages started publishing finding ads in April, which means those babies will be paper-ready in October or November, and there will thus be an influx of available babies at that time, not a decrease.
I believe the CCAA could not keep up the 6 month referral time due to a variety of factors but mostly supply (decreased due to Hunan situation and possibly due to other factors) and demand (waaayyyyy more people wanting to adopt from China). The 12 month timeframe is more realistic. I believe the wait will go to about 14-15 months and then speed up in October/November.
I really think/hope these agencies who are fueling the 2 year rumors are doing so without direct knowledge and just extrapolating what's been happening with referrals for the past several months and projecting those number into the future.
I was so sure of myself when I wrote this back in the hopeful days of yesteryear... oh, wait, that was two days ago. I don't know what to think anymore. What about you? Thoughts are welcome!!
6 comments:
I find your thoughts much more comforting. I think I'll just choose to believe you for now. It will get me through a while longer. Hearing good logic makes it easier to handle the climb up the next big coaster hill before plummeting down!
As an adoptive parent in 2004 when the wait for (non-expedited) parents was 9-10 months, I watched with surprise the Summer-Fall 2005 referrals that were coming at the 6-7 month rate.
I wondered, "Doesn't anyone wonder WHY things are going so fast?"
No, because no one tries to make sense of GOOD news.
And now with the slowdown, many, many conspiracy theories.
And then to top that off, there are parents who adopted during the time of SARs and they waited (gasp) even longer than 14 months.
They definitely had it rougher than those people now because some of them had referrals and couldn't be allowed to travel for MONTHS later.
Seems no one can look at the "big picture".
RQ is bad.
I don't even predict any more. Call me a cynic, but I believe any government can say something, but do something else. I saw it when we were doing this in the VN adoption. So, nothing surprises me - my only hope is we get to travel before June next year. Ugh, who knew. This experience seems surreal - I'm elated one day, but two days later, dejected, depressed, and then just mad. I think I'm on the verge of becoming a lunatic case - a good one, but a looney nonethless. Anyway, thanks Nina for keeping everyone's spirits up. I think our next milestone mark should be when DO we get in the Review Room..
As NASCAR fans say... this is silly season. Lots of rumors and speculation.
I will wait until we get our daughter's referral. Yes, I am getting older by the month (drat, can't I stop those birthdays?) and wish our daughter would come sooner....
I can't control the timing. We will get her when we can get her.
Thanks for your sane comments.
Alyson
Everything you said makes complete sense to me. I like the way you think!! With a January LID I was first hoping for An August referral, then a October Referral and then just a picture before Christmas. I finally talked my self into traveling in Spring 2007 but I just don't think I can even handle summer 2007 travel!! Thanks for thinking positive and giving me a glimmer of hope again.
I hate to say it, but the truth is it gets much jerkier the closer you get. It's like we are belted in and eveytime you think you are near the end there's another drop. And the people with their referrals seem to be in the worst shape of all, threatening to call the CCAA and everything. Sorry, but it's true. I still hope that for you all things will speed up and that it will be different. I have a very pregnant friend that keeps telling me I am doing it the easy way, uh no.
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